The Human Jowl continues to bemuse....

Josh_Kablack · Post by **Josh_Kablack** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 4:36 am

So, like all Pennsylvania voters, next year I will have to ask

"Am I a defecter Specter elector or am I a defector Specter rejecter?"

Doubtless, progress on the high speed rail connector will be an major effector.

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:29 am

For fuck's sake, Josh, do anything possible to prevent Toomey from being elected senator.

----

But anyway, you know what the (to me, un)surprising thing about this whole defection is? The base Republicans are glad that it actually happened. Yes, in the aggregate this move supports a more conservative agenda, but as Nate Silver pointed out this is just another hallmark of the death spiral the GOP is going down:

Basically, his theory is that as moderate Republicans start losing, leaving only the conservative Republicans left, the message of the party gets more and more conservative and appealing to the base which makes it harder to compete nationally. This sort of thing happened with FDR.

Surgo · Post by **Surgo** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:37 am

I come from Pennsylvania, and I'm a little embarrassed that I'm not sure what you guys are talking about. Explain in small words for the easily confused?

Josh_Kablack · Post by **Josh_Kablack** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:41 am

Lago PARANOIA wrote:For fuck's sake, Josh, do anything possible to prevent Toomey from being elected senator..

I'm already planning on *not* destroying Pittsburgh nor Philly. So long as The Jowl (or other potential Democratic Nominee) is not revealed to be an al-qaeda agent who fucks cows for fun or a Dallas Cowbyoys fan who favors strong gun control, I'm pretty sure that's all that's needed to keep Toomey from winning the state.

Surgo: Google News "Arlen Spector" (sorry the Daily Show clip won't be online until tomorrow)

Crissa · Post by **Crissa** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:58 am

We just need to figure out a way to manufacture another major party or a new system of electors or something once the GOP has turned itself into well, the old party.

Because that'll be the one way we can make sure those guys /stay/ marginalized, by giving voices to the factions that haven't gotten a chance yet.

If Spector wins the nomination... Vote for him. He's no worse than the DINOs, and now that he doesn't have to make party-line votes... Maybe he'll have a record you can at least not dislike by the time of the general.

-Crissa

Surgo · Post by **Surgo** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:03 am

Thanks. I had no idea that he flipped Democratic.

He was already more democratic than a lot of democrats in the Bush years anyway, but man that is still sleazy.

angelfromanotherpin · Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:20 pm

As usual, I find Greenwald's analysis of the situation top-notch.

Josh_Kablack · Post by **Josh_Kablack** » Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:30 pm

Daily Show first 2:40 are devoted to the Spector Defection

Greenwald isn't far off.

Specter's switch pulls the democrats to the right, the party is basically trading orthodoxy for immediate advantage and better odds in next year's election.

But here's the thing: overall PA is a swing state with a narrow democratic advantage (which is concentrated in two large urban areas), so in state contests we are very likely to elect right-leaning (pro-gun) democrats or left-leaning republicans. Since Toomey is running as a neocon with an agenda to the right of Dubya's, his chances in a statewide election are marginal at best and he will likely be beaten by a "centrist" democrat opponent next year. If Specter had not switched, Toomey would likely lose to Patrick Murphy, Jack Wagner, Franco Harris or someone else who many here would consider DINOs.

So Democrats at the national level are likely not giving up all that much in the way of orthodoxy for the immediate advantage and improved odds of gaining the seat.

Neeeek · Post by **Neeeek** » Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:25 am

Josh_Kablack wrote: So Democrats at the national level are likely not giving up all that much in the way of orthodoxy for the immediate advantage and improved odds of gaining the seat.

Only if Specter doesn't win the Dem primary. Otherwise, they are trading more or less nothing for not getting a much farther left Senator in Specter's place. Toomey would likely win the GOP primary against Specter, but Penn is about 3/5ths Democrats at this point, and Toomey doesn't have a chance in the general.

Ganbare Gincun · Post by **Ganbare Gincun** » Sat May 16, 2009 5:01 am

Lago PARANOIA wrote:But anyway, you know what the (to me, un)surprising thing about this whole defection is? The base Republicans are glad that it actually happened. Yes, in the aggregate this move supports a more conservative agenda, but as Nate Silver pointed out this is just another hallmark of the death spiral the GOP is going down.

I wonder who they'll turn on next. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are pretty safe bets, and they're just itching to eliminate Michael Steele, but they can't too it too quickly or else they'll look racist. Unfortunately, the GOP is more concerned about "ideological purity" then winning elections at this point. It's only a matter of time before they run off all of the moderates in their party, and I think that's a good thing.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Sat May 16, 2009 7:19 am

It's not like we haven't had parties rise and fall before. Federalists anyone? Even f we keep our two party system - which I am opposed to - it's still entirely possible for the republicans to vanish altogether and be replaced by the Greens or the Libertarians.

That this sort of thing has not successfully happened in longer than most countries on the planet have existed s beside the point. It has happened. And it can happen again.

-Username17

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Sat May 16, 2009 7:29 am

I'm actually really surprised that FDR's administration didn't end up completely destroying the Republican party then and there. They got down to Whig numbers at one point.

If they can survive that death spiral then I don't think that the Republican party is going to go down anytime soon. But anyway, yeah. Moderate Republicans lose therefore the party's message and politics become more conservative which causes Republicans in less conservative districts to lose which makes what's left of the party become even more conservative.

This is also essentially what happened with the Nazi party--until Hitler overthrew the government they were actually starting to lose elections. But then through a sheer combination of luck and incompetence they ended up overthrowing the government before they got caught in their own death spiral. There's a lesson in there, I think.

Ganbare Gincun · Post by **Ganbare Gincun** » Sat May 16, 2009 7:06 pm

FrankTrollman wrote:It's not like we haven't had parties rise and fall before. Federalists anyone? Even f we keep our two party system - which I am opposed to - it's still entirely possible for the republicans to vanish altogether and be replaced by the Greens or the Libertarians.

Libertarians are basically Republicans in everything but name anyway, so I'm hoping the Green Party will be next in line for succession.

Maj · Post by **Maj** » Sat May 16, 2009 8:01 pm

Ganbare Gincun wrote:Libertarians are basically Republicans in everything but name anyway

Not really. While Libertarians allegedly cling to the conservative side of the spectrum when it comes to money and government involvement, they are supportive of socially liberal policy like gay rights and a woman's right to an abortion.

Crissa · Post by **Crissa** » Sat May 16, 2009 8:54 pm

Oh, yes, Maj. Unless it comes to actually voting for such rights, in which there are absolutely zero cases of them doing so.

Pulling out party-line votes, Spector is hardly more conservative than Nelson.

-Crissa

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Sat May 16, 2009 10:36 pm

Gotta agree with Crissa here. Ron Paul came out against woman's rights time and time again. Now he gussied it up with bullshit Libertarian buzzwords, but it was and is totally indistinguishable from the regularly scheduled fundy crazy train.

See, when it comes to a woman's right to choose her own destiny the region should have the freedom to ban medical procedures. But when it comes to a community's rights to set standards for their own air quality the wealthy industrialists should have the freedom to put whatever into the air they want. "Freedom" only applies to people you like doing things you want them to do. People you don't like doing things you don't want them to do is "Tyranny."

And the Libertards like the Conservatives and they don't like the Liberals. It's that fucking simple. Libertarians only care about their right to swing their arm and their right to not get hit in the face. They don't give a rat's ass about your rights to not get hit in the face or your rights to swing your arm.

-Username17

Absentminded_Wizard · Post by **Absentminded_Wizard** » Sun May 17, 2009 5:27 am

Of course, Ron Paul's a Republican now....

On parties being replaced: There are a lot more barriers to that happening now than there were pre-1865. Most states' election laws give the Democrats and Republicans automatic spots on the ballot and require other parties to get a certain number of signatures to get a spot. These kinds of things make it very hard for a third party to gain any lasting traction. Of course, the last party that had any kind of a shot (largely due to its founder's wealth) was hijacked and killed by Pat Buchanan.

These days, parties don't disappear, they just reinvent themselves. Kind of like how the Democrats, who were on the ropes after the Civil War, had a pretty good run in the mid-20th Century by evolving from the party of slavery, Jim Crow, and "state's rights" into the party of federal regulation and minority rights.

mean_liar · Post by **mean_liar** » Mon May 18, 2009 5:28 pm

I love how Cheney is totally cracking in public now.

I mean, when I went through the Frontline interviews I got the general impression that the man was driven more by paranoia than aggression. But to hear him? It's like the Wizard coming out from behind the curtain:

"Ta-da! I'm a tiny scared man!"